Mansoor Nizamani
September 30, 2026, will be remembered as an important day in Iraq’s political and security history. On that day, the last U.S. military troops departed from Erbil Air Base, bringing an important chapter of America’s long military presence in Iraq to an end. In Baghdad and other cities, the development is being viewed as a symbol of Iraqi sovereignty. The responsibilities of the Iraqi military and security institutions have now become even more clearly their own. The U.S. leadership has also stated that ISIS has been largely defeated and that Iraqi security forces will now assume full responsibility for the country’s security. However, the question remains: does the departure of foreign troops truly demonstrate Iraq’s complete sovereignty, or could it also give rise to new political and security challenges?
Looking at the history of the U.S. military presence in Iraq, the current withdrawal is not the result of a decision taken on a single day, but rather the outcome of a long process spanning more than two decades. In 2003, a U.S.-led military operation was launched to overthrow the government of Saddam Hussein, after which Iraq went through a prolonged political and security crisis. A major withdrawal of U.S. troops took place in 2011, but in 2014, following the rapid rise of ISIS and its seizure of large areas, including Mosul, U.S. forces returned to Iraq. The international coalition’s military campaign against ISIS continued thereafter. After years of warfare, training and security cooperation, the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops raises the question of how effectively Iraq can manage its own security system.
This development should not be viewed merely as the outcome of a military agreement between Washington and Baghdad. Within Iraq, various political and armed groups also have their own interests. Several armed groups regarded as close to Iran have long opposed the U.S. military presence in Iraq, and U.S. military bases have also been targeted in attacks in this context. These groups may now present the U.S. withdrawal as a result of their political pressure and resistance. However, the fundamental question for the Iraqi state is to what extent all armed groups operating in the country can be brought under the constitutional and legal framework of the state. From this perspective, this remains a major challenge for the Iraqi government, and its immediate resolution does not appear easy.
Another major challenge for Iraq is the remaining ISIS network. Although ISIS has lost its former territorial power, the ability of its dispersed groups to carry out attacks has not been completely eliminated. Therefore, even after the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces, intelligence, training, surveillance and technical assistance will continue to be necessary in the fight against terrorism. Consequently, the role of coalition forces is likely to shift from a large ground military presence toward various forms of support. The real test lies with the Iraqi army, police and intelligence agencies: how effectively can they prevent groups such as ISIS from reorganizing?
The Kurdistan region is also of particular importance for the Iraqi government, because Kurdish forces and coalition forces maintained close cooperation during the fight against ISIS in northern Iraq. Political, financial and security disagreements between Baghdad and Erbil have emerged from time to time. If cooperation between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government remains strong, it may become easier to address security challenges. However, it should also be remembered that if political disagreements intensify, terrorist groups could once again find opportunities to reorganize. Therefore, following the U.S. withdrawal, internal political unity and coordination within Iraq have become more important than ever.
The influence of neighboring countries on Iraq’s future cannot be ignored either. Iran has deep religious, political, economic and security ties with Iraq, while its relations with the United States have remained strained for decades, and this situation continues today. In the past, Iraq has also become an arena of competition between the two powers. Following the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces, a major diplomatic test for Baghdad will be to maintain a balanced foreign and security policy based on its national interests rather than falling under the influence of any one side. The true meaning of Iraqi sovereignty will also lie in ensuring that the country’s major decisions are made by Iraqi institutions according to the national interest.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces is certainly a symbolic achievement for Iraq, but sovereignty cannot be limited merely to the absence of foreign troops. Genuine sovereignty becomes stronger when a state exercises effective control over its borders, institutions, economy, law and security. If different armed groups continue to maintain their power within the country, political divisions weaken state institutions, and regional powers exert excessive influence over domestic politics, then the concept of sovereignty may remain incomplete despite the military withdrawal.
Iraq has now entered a new phase. Following the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, several important questions have emerged regarding how the Iraqi government will fulfill its responsibilities. How will it prevent ISIS from reorganizing? How will it integrate armed groups into the state system? How will it further strengthen cooperation between Baghdad and Erbil? How will it maintain balanced relations with neighboring countries? And how will it strengthen its national institutions? These are the fundamental challenges now facing the Iraqi government. How these challenges are addressed and what strategy is adopted to resolve them will be determined by time. History, however, shows that when nations remain sincere toward their homeland and their future, even the most difficult challenges can be confronted through better strategy, national unity and perseverance. May peace and stability prevail in Iraq in the near future so that the Iraqi people can live with security, dignity and peace of mind.
