Qamar Bashir
Shahbaz Sharif, celebrated for his administrative prowess, confronts the formidable task of guiding the nation towards political stability and economic resilience. To achieve this, he must enact bold reforms, including the elimination of subsidies and the privatization of underperforming State-Owned Enterprises like PIA. Moreover, vital institutions such as the Federal Board of Revenue must undergo modernization to combat the pervasive corruption that plagues the system.
Furthermore, urgent measures are needed to tackle issues like electricity theft and to broaden the tax base, encompassing sectors such as agriculture, retail, and real estate. Encouraging provinces to bolster their revenue streams and elevating the tax to GDP ratio from its current 9 to 10% to a sustainable 18% are imperative for long-term fiscal stability.
These transformative reforms hold immense promise, potentially injecting Rs. 5,800 trillion into the national coffers. This enhanced liquidity will serve as a magnet for both foreign and domestic investors, fostering a climate of confidence in the business community. Ultimately, this revitalization will spur economic growth, job creation, and an increase in per capita income, thus easing the burden of escalating commodity and utility prices on the populace.
Shahbaz Sharif can achieve these results by adopting a singular focus to match China’s efficiency in implementing CPEC-1 and CPEC-2. China’s method of executing projects starts with centralized planning and decision-making, facilitated by its political system. The government establishes long-term development goals and priorities, often through visionary initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025. This top-down approach ensures alignment with national objectives and promotes consensus-building within the ruling Communist Party, providing a solid foundation for ambitious projects.
China utilizes state-led investment and coordination mechanisms to mobilize resources effectively. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are pivotal in infrastructure development, benefiting from government financing and regulatory support. Additionally, China promotes public-private partnerships (PPPs) to leverage the strengths of both sectors, encouraging innovation, risk-sharing, and efficiency gains essential for successful projects, especially in infrastructure and technology sectors.
China’s success in project implementation is rooted in its focus on capacity building, technological advancement, and robust governance. Investments in human capital development, research, and skills training ensure the availability of skilled labor needed for intricate projects. Adaptive governance and flexible policy responses allow authorities to navigate challenges and adjust strategies during implementation. Moreover, effective project management, oversight, and accountability mechanisms ensure timely completion and high-quality outcomes, reinforcing China’s reputation for efficient execution of high-value projects.
Despite China’s renowned efficiency and dedication, delays have persisted in the implementation of projects under CPEC-1, initially valued at $65 billion and slated for completion by 2025. Currently, only $25 billion of the total investment has materialized, leaving approximately $40 billion worth of projects still in the pipeline.
The delay in CPEC projects are not due to Chinese lack of commitment but primarily stemming from Pakistan’s volatile political and security landscape. Security threats, including terrorism and regional instability, have disrupted construction activities and discouraged investors, resulting in delays and increased costs. Bureaucratic inefficiencies, regulatory hurdles, and governance issues within Pakistan’s administrative framework have further impeded project implementation. Inefficient decision-making processes, corruption allegations, and a lack of transparency in procurement and contracting have eroded investor confidence and contributed to the sluggish pace of project execution.
Additional factors contributing to the delay in CPEC project completion encompass Pakistan’s economic downturns, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical tensions, compounded by external pressures such as regional rivalries and strategic interests. Sovereignty concerns, territorial disputes, and geopolitical alignments also pose challenges. Ecological impacts and community resettlement issues further complicate CPEC projects, necessitating careful consideration and mitigation strategies.
Shahbaz Sharif’s demonstrated administrative prowess positions him to secure the remaining $40 billion investment in CPEC-1 and effectively operationalize the five growth corridors of CPEC-2: the Growth Corridor, Open Corridor, Livelihood Corridor, Innovation Corridor, and Green Corridor. Successful implementation of these initiatives could potentially lift the country out of its current economic challenges within the next five years. However, achieving this ambitious goal hinges on overcoming numerous ifs and buts.
If Shahbaz Sharif can achieve political stability and consensus among the provinces regarding the distribution of CPEC-1 and CPEC-2 projects, it could set a strong foundation for success. Maintaining a positive relationship with the establishment and enhancing bureaucratic competency are crucial steps in ensuring efficient project management. Additionally, surviving the political landscape over the next five years is essential for continuity and progress. Streamlining bureaucratic processes, addressing security concerns, and providing policy clarity will boost investor confidence and project continuity. Timely securing funding, developing necessary infrastructure, and addressing local stakeholder concerns are pivotal in overcoming obstacles to project implementation. Resolving legal disputes and regulatory inconsistencies will further facilitate smooth project execution. Success in these endeavors will be key to unlocking the full potential of CPEC and driving economic growth in Pakistan.
Assuming Shahbaz Sharif successfully materializes the remaining $40 billion investment in CPEC-1 and fully operationalizes CPEC-2 projects over the next five years, Pakistan’s economic, financial, and developmental landscape will undergo a transformative change.
Completion of CPEC-1 and CPEC-2 will result in the construction of new roads, ports, railways, and energy projects, enhancing connectivity both within Pakistan and with China. This improved infrastructure will boost trade, transportation, and economic activity, paving the way for increased investment and development opportunities.
The establishment of special economic zones (SEZs) along the CPEC route has the potential to attract domestic and foreign industries, leading to industrial growth, technology transfer, and skills development. This diversification of Pakistan’s industrial base will contribute to increased productivity and economic resilience.
Furthermore, the completion of energy projects such as power plants and renewable energy installations will address Pakistan’s energy deficit and enhance energy security, laying a strong foundation for sustained economic growth.
Improved infrastructure and connectivity facilitated by CPEC will facilitate trade not only between Pakistan and China but also with other countries in the region. This increased trade volume will drive exports, reduce trade costs, and stimulate overall economic growth, ultimately leading to a more prosperous and developed Pakistan.
Shahbaz Sharif’s efforts to achieve balanced regional development and attract further foreign investment can be significantly enhanced by prioritizing political stability in Pakistan. Political stability serves as the cornerstone for ensuring continuity in policies and government priorities, creating an environment conducive to long-term planning and execution of infrastructure projects like CPEC.
By establishing political stability, Sharif can bolster investor confidence, both domestic and foreign, in the predictability and security of the operating environment. This confidence is crucial for attracting investment in large-scale projects like CPEC, as investors seek assurances that their investments will be protected and secure.
Moreover, a stable political environment streamlines decision-making processes within the government, minimizing bureaucratic delays and bottlenecks in project implementation. Timely approvals, permits, and clearances are essential for keeping CPEC projects on track and ensuring their successful execution.
Furthermore, political stability is essential for maintaining positive relations with China and other international partners involved in CPEC. Consistent diplomatic engagement and cooperation are necessary for resolving issues, negotiating agreements, and securing additional investment for CPEC projects.
In essence, political stability provides the foundation for effective governance, investor confidence, and security, all of which are critical for the successful and timely completion of CPEC projects. Without political stability, the risk of delays, disruptions, and project failures increases, potentially undermining the transformative potential of CPEC for Pakistan’s economy and development.
Writer is Former Press Secretary to the President ,Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France ,Former MD, SRBC
