Spokesman Report
New York, 22 September 2026:The world economy appears to be finding its footing, but the government spending that helped it weather repeated shocks since 2020 is unlikely to be there next time, according to a new survey of chief economists released today by the World Economic Forum.
The Chief Economists’ Outlook found that 56% of respondents now expect global conditions to hold steady or improve — a marked turnaround from May, when nearly nine in ten predicted things would get worse. Even so, optimism is fragile: almost all economists surveyed flagged geopolitical conflict as a major risk over the coming year, more than half expect asset prices to correct, and just a quarter believe the global economy is actually becoming more resilient.
Attilio Di Battista, the WEF’s Head of Economic Growth and Transformation, said the improved outlook comes alongside real uncertainty — from geopolitical tension and possible asset-price swings to growing scrutiny of AI spending and ongoing pressure on living costs. He noted that government support carried economies through past crises, but with public finances now more stretched, the focus needs to shift toward building resilience before the next downturn hits.
A fading fiscal cushion
Roughly seven in ten economists said fiscal support had been the single biggest driver of stability since 2020. Looking ahead, only about a quarter expect governments to play that same role. Instead, resilience is expected to come from more adaptable supply chains, continued innovation, and shifts in energy markets — with the US and China seen as best positioned to absorb shocks.
AI investment booms — and draws pushback
Confidence in artificial intelligence remains strong: nearly all economists expect AI adoption to keep climbing, and about seven in ten anticipate real productivity gains. Roughly 78% see data-centre investment as a significant driver of global growth, but almost as many expect that build-out to run into local opposition.
The catch: most economists don’t think data centres will translate into major job creation, and majorities expect the expansion to push up both electricity and water prices. Meanwhile, the AI rivalry between the US and China is expected to tighten, with about 69% predicting Chinese AI models will close the gap on their American counterparts within the year.
A more fragmented global economy
More than three-quarters of respondents expect economic fragmentation to deepen, with tariff hikes anticipated in both the US and Europe. Still, trade isn’t expected to collapse — two-thirds see global trade volumes rising, and a large majority expect Chinese exports to non-US markets to keep growing.
The US remains the top destination for multinational investment, followed by South-East Asia and Europe, both of which climbed a spot. India slipped to fourth, while China held at fifth.
Regional growth outlooks diverged: India, South-East Asia, Central Asia and the US drew the strongest ratings, while China’s outlook softened and Europe remained the weakest region overall. Central banks are also expected to move in different directions — tightening in Japan, the eurozone and the US, while China is expected to loosen policy.
Living costs set to keep climbing
Economists broadly expect the cost of living to keep rising, driven by food, electricity and transport prices. Real incomes are projected to fall or stagnate in most regions — South-East Asia and India being notable exceptions. To respond, governments are expected to lean on broad measures like tax cuts on essentials, subsidies and price caps, rather than more targeted tools like cash transfers to low-income households.
