Qamar Bashir
The convergence of the AfPak insurgency, the Balochistan separatist movement, and the rise of Pakistan as a geopolitical power has created a perfect storm. Israel, viewing Pakistan as the primary obstacle to its regional hegemony, is allegedly employing its formidable intelligence apparatus to fracture the country from within.
The nexus between the TTP, the BLA, and external actors like India and Israel represents the most significant threat to Pakistan’s national security in decades. Pakistan is not a stupid country; it is smart, resilient, and has repeatedly proven its ability to punch above its weight.
History rarely announces the arrival of a new geopolitical order; it reveals itself gradually through shifting alliances, changing perceptions, and the emergence of unexpected diplomatic actors.
Whether one agrees with every aspect of Pakistan’s recent foreign policy or not, there is a growing perception among several analysts that Islamabad has become a more consequential player in regional diplomacy than it was only a few years ago.
As Pakistan’s diplomatic profile rises, so too does the possibility that it may become the target of increasingly sophisticated forms of geopolitical competition, including proxy conflict, intelligence rivalry, and information warfare.
Former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson recently remarked that if someone had predicted only two months earlier that Pakistan would emerge as a significant political force helping shape a new security architecture for the Persian Gulf, many observers would have dismissed the idea.
Yet, he argued, “that is exactly what has happened,” describing Pakistan as “a major force” and expressing admiration for both what Pakistan is doing and how it is doing it. While this represents Johnson’s assessment rather than an established fact, it reflects a perception that Pakistan’s diplomatic influence has expanded significantly.
Pakistan’s importance stems not only from geography but from strategic relevance. Situated at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, China, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Arabian Sea, Pakistan occupies one of the world’s most strategically important locations. It is also the only declared Muslim-majority nuclear power, giving it a unique position in regional security calculations.
Recent regional crises have reinforced this importance. Pakistan has maintained active diplomatic engagement during periods of heightened tension involving Iran, Afghanistan, and the Gulf region. Whether these efforts ultimately reshape the regional order remains to be seen, but they have undoubtedly elevated Pakistan’s visibility within international strategic discussions.
As Pakistan’s diplomatic significance increases, its security challenges will become more complex. The security environment stretching from Afghanistan through Iran to the Persian Gulf has undergone profound transformation.
Aaron Y. Zelin of The Washington Institute argues that the “AfPak” and Iran theatres should no longer be viewed separately because militant organizations, cross-border insurgencies, terrorism, and regional conflicts increasingly overlap. In his analysis, the Taliban’s return to power has strengthened the operational environment for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and associated jihadist organizations, creating interconnected security challenges extending beyond Pakistan’s western frontier.
These concerns are echoed by Richard Lindsay, the United Kingdom’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan. In an interview with Amu TV, Lindsay described the TTP as a terrorist organization and stated that Afghan authorities in Kabul and Kandahar need to address concerns involving safe havens, training camps, weapons, and financial support associated with the group. He also affirmed that every sovereign state possesses the right to defend itself against genuine terrorist threats while emphasizing the need to avoid civilian casualties.
These observations from international officials reinforce what Pakistan has argued consistently for several years: that instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border has become one of the country’s most serious national security challenges.
Another important development is the deepening strategic partnership between India and Israel. Military cooperation, intelligence sharing, drone technology, missile systems, cyber capabilities, and surveillance technologies have become defining features of this relationship. These developments are widely documented and are increasingly viewed in Pakistan as significant components of the country’s evolving security environment.
While Pakistan has never fought a direct conflict with Israel, Israel has nevertheless entered Pakistan’s threat perceptions through indirect strategic developments. Israel’s expanding partnership with India, its increasing attention to Balochistan, and broader regional dynamics have collectively altered Pakistan’s strategic calculations requiring sound national security decisions that require careful evaluation of evidence.
Incidentally, Balochistan has become one of South Asia’s most strategically significant provinces. It hosts the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), borders both Iran and Afghanistan, and provides Pakistan with direct access to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar Port.
The province has also experienced a long-running separatist insurgency. The external actors are seeking to exploit local grievances to advance broader geopolitical objectives. Israeli-linked organizations such as MEMRI have increasingly highlighted Balochistan-related issues.
MEMRI has translated and archived statements by exiled Baloch nationalist leaders, including Hyrbyair Marri, who has publicly expressed support for closer relations with Israel and praised Israeli military actions against Iran. These publications demonstrate that some Baloch nationalist figures openly seek international partnerships, including with Israel.
Similarly, opinion pieces published in The Jerusalem Post have discussed overtures by exiled Baloch leaders toward Israel. These developments do not by themselves establish operational cooperation. However, they have contributed to a growing perception within Pakistan’s strategic community that Balochistan has become part of a wider geopolitical contest.
Most importantly, modern conflict increasingly extends beyond the battlefield. Military force is now accompanied by information campaigns, digital influence operations, cyber activities, political advocacy, and international narrative building. The media platforms, advocacy organizations, think tanks, and digital campaigns increasingly influence international perceptions regarding Balochistan. Whether one accepts these assessments or not, information competition has clearly become an important dimension of contemporary geopolitical rivalry.
The debate surrounding Balochistan therefore extends beyond security operations to include competing narratives over governance, human rights, separatism, terrorism, and regional stability.
Pakistan’s response should be guided by evidence, strategic patience, and institutional resilience rather than alarmism. Strengthening border security, improving intelligence coordination with neighboring countries, expanding counterterrorism capabilities, protecting critical national infrastructure, enhancing cyber resilience, and investing in economic development in vulnerable regions should remain national priorities.
Equally important is deeper security cooperation with Iran, whose own border provinces face similar challenges involving cross-border militancy, organized crime, and extremist violence.
Diplomatically, Pakistan should continue engaging regional and international partners while explaining its security concerns through credible evidence and sustained dialogue.
History demonstrates that countries assuming greater geopolitical importance inevitably attract greater strategic attention from both partners and competitors. Whether Pakistan’s growing diplomatic role proves temporary or enduring, its security environment has undeniably become more complex.
The convergence of terrorism, proxy conflicts, information warfare, and regional power competition demands careful strategic planning rather than reactive policymaking.
The international analysts increasingly view Pakistan as a country whose security is intertwined with broader regional dynamics. While some claims regarding external involvement in insurgent movements remain contested and require continued scrutiny, they have nonetheless become part of Pakistan’s evolving strategic discourse.
Pakistan’s greatest strength has historically been its resilience. If it combines diplomatic engagement with effective governance, counterterrorism, economic inclusion, and regional cooperation, it will be better positioned to navigate an era in which influence is measured not only by military capability but also by the ability to withstand hybrid threats and preserve national cohesion.
The writer is Press Secretary to the President (Rtd),Former Press Minister, Embassy of Pakistan to France,Former Press Attaché to Malaysia and Former MD, SRBC.He is living in Michigan, USA.
