Nisar Ahmed
Mercury is down but not for angry Khan, troubled Sharifs, accused generals and trembling trade community. History is repeating itself and this time not without a twist. Political scuffle in the federal capital took a dangerous turn after the former premiership holder Imran Khan was shot in an assasination attempt during his long march from Lahore to Islamabad.
Party holding the bridle of Punjab government typically holds sway in federation but this time in an upsetting surprise, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) with its footholds in both KP and Punjab is sitting on the opposition benches in the federal caucus and opened a new chapter of regime change.
Regime change conspiracy, a mantra of the former supremo since his removal from prime minister’s office, was once again resuscitated after Mr. Khan gained sympathies among his partisans following attacks on party leadership. That rekindled momentum was not enough to hold scores against the sitting government in holding snap polls and the mantra momentum proved to be dead-cat bounce, pushing Imran to improvise his earlier plans of sit-ins.
The most significant military appointment is ultimately made amidst all the mayhem as General AsimMuneer, the new commander, took over for Ex-General QamarBajwa. Imran, earlier not happy with the Sharifs’ huddle in London before this decision was taken, lately expressed his intention to rejuvenate the civil-military ties by succumbing to the decision taken at the PM’s office.
Recently, Imran having shown some flexibility agreed to come to the negotiation table with an ultimatum to hold elections before the start of Ramadan or else he sees the dissolution of two provincial houses, a trump card for all his problems! Is he in a position to define the terms despite his allegations over “Bajwa-Doctrine”? His post Bajwa-Doctrine narrative hints at a distrust with the top military commander and raises many questions over his earlier silence.
It will take longer than expected before the dust is finally settled on the political-economic fronts with the disputes rising beyond borders. Neutralizing the ongoing tension among the political parties and burying the mantra of regime change,a tough row to hoe for the newly appointed commander-in-chief, lies at the top of the list towards achieving inhouse stability.
Another challenge is the resurging terrorist activity in Pakistan after the Taliban led government took over Afghanistan. In late November, after Pakistani Talibans called-off month-long ceasefire, attacks on the Pakistan embassy in Kabul and other districts of KP and Balochistan warrant a revised national defence policy, for the region cannot afford a new war.
In the backdrop of national drive on amassing dollars, Pakistan’s increasing interest in the trade markets of Moscow is also undesirable to its old friend in the west. Pakistan entered into a contract for import 450,000 tonnes of wheat and talks are making headway for the import of POL products. The above plans are in doldrums as the local banks have already refused to facilitate the transactions over fears of financial castigation by the US authorities. Previously, Habib Bank Limited and National Bank Pakistan were fined $225 million & $55 million respectively over regulatory violations and this is sufficient to spur a fear of further fines.
What lies ahead? On the political fronts, defiance of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) to hold early elections is not an assuring sign for Mr. Khan. However, Imran will not be able to play his trump card of dissolving assemblies of KP and Punjab as the sources reveal that not all members of parliaments would tender their resignations in support of PTI. Apparently, he is only using this threat as a tool for gaining public support and growing his vote bank; the ulterior motive is to let the PDM dig its own grave by the poor public perception of their performance amid an economic meltdown.
In the wake of resurging terror activities, continued involvement of US in its peace-keeping efforts is expected in the coming weeks. Ned Price, an official from US Department of State, expressed his intent to confront the emerging terrorism from the landlocked neighbor of Pakistan. The above announcement is expected to agitate the insurgent groups operating in Pakistan.
Whereas on one side, US is making moves to ward off new wave of terror for Pakistan; at the same time, Pakistan, developing a taste in Russian products is expected to irk US authorities that might result in delay in release of relief tranches and might attract penalties. In extreme rarity, the US may impose sanctions over Pakistan which is already facing a liquidity crunch with its reserves falling below $7 billion in early December.
If Pakistan-US tension continues to escalate, this is hinting at pushing the sovereign into the ICU. All odds of foreign, defense and political-economic policy require a unified manifesto of civil-military leadership which is expected after the recent shuffling in commands.
The writer contributes to the national press occasionally & is accessible at:[email protected],https://www.linkedin.com/in/nisaree
