Kiran Asim
In the shifting theatre of global geopolitics, subtle signs often precede sharp turns. As India edges closer to Russia and American patience thins, the balance of power in South Asia appears to be tilting. Recent remarks by U.S. senators, combined with subtle diplomatic maneuvers, suggest that Washington may be preparing for a political transition in New Delhi—one that could involve the ouster of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The broader context reveals a major recalibration: the United States is increasingly signaling a pro-Pakistan, anti-India pivot, especially as India charts an independent course that undermines American strategic interests. At the center of this regional shift stands Pakistan’s Field Marshal General Asim Munir, whose rising influence and disciplined geopolitical posture are placing Islamabad back at the core of Washington’s South Asia policy.
At the recent G7 Summit, Narendra Modi reportedly declined a meeting with Donald Trump—a move many observers interpreted as a calculated diplomatic snub. Interestingly, in the wake of this rejection, Trump’s team made a gesture that turned more heads in security circles than in the press: they extended quiet signals toward Pakistan’s Field Marshal General Asim Munir.
General Asim Munir, known for his intelligence background and his no-nonsense strategic approach, is fast becoming one of the most pivotal figures in the region. In the U.S. security establishment, he is viewed as a figure who can restore predictability and trust in an increasingly unstable neighborhood. His command over Pakistan’s internal and external security apparatus, combined with his low-key but high-impact diplomacy, is being interpreted as a stabilizing counterweight to Modi’s increasingly erratic and nationalistic posture.
Under Modi, India has refused to take a clear stance against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Not only has India continued purchasing Russian oil at discounted rates, but it has also deepened its defense and trade cooperation with Moscow. These moves are not going unnoticed in Washington. To the U.S., India’s growing intimacy with Russia represents more than just old ties—it signals strategic defiance. New Delhi is no longer content being a passive partner in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. It wants to be an independent pole of power, even if it means working with Washington’s adversaries. But this comes at a cost. With China becoming more assertive and the West determined to isolate Moscow, India’s neutrality is starting to look like complicity in the eyes of American strategists.
As America reconsiders its options in South Asia, one truth has become inescapable: nothing in Afghanistan moves without Pakistan. From weapons logistics to intelligence access and border control, Pakistan remains the only viable gateway into Afghanistan. The Taliban’s rise to power, regional terrorist containment, and potential covert operations all require Islamabad’s cooperation. And that cooperation, today, is tightly coordinated under the leadership of General Asim Munir. While India seeks to act as a global power broker, it lacks the ground-level access, regional roots, and tribal networks that Pakistan possesses. This is why the U.S., despite all past friction, is quietly warming relations with Islamabad again. The American pivot toward Pakistan isn’t sentimental. It’s logistical. It’s strategic. And it’s deeply rooted in the new realities of ground warfare, intelligence coordination, and energy security in Central and South Asia.
The United States does not need to send troops or orchestrate coups to pressure allied governments. A modern regime change often begins with a shift in narrative. Watch for intensified Western scrutiny of Modi’s record on human rights, press freedom, and religious pluralism. International NGOs, media watchdogs, and human rights organizations may soon amplify criticisms already brewing within India itself. This isn’t speculative; it’s a pattern. From Iran (1953) to Chile (1973), from Ukraine (2014) to Pakistan (2022), the U.S. has long used economic, diplomatic, and media pressure to influence leadership transitions where strategic interests demanded change.
India may not be immune. With its democracy showing signs of erosion under the BJP’s hardline politics, Washington now has both the moral ammunition and the strategic incentive to support a leadership shift—if not directly, then by letting domestic opposition forces grow stronger with international support. The chessboard is being rearranged. India’s overconfidence in its global standing may be its undoing if it continues to defy American expectations and align itself with Russia. Meanwhile, Pakistan, under the firm and focused leadership of Field Marshal General Asim Munir, is reasserting himself as an indispensable regional actor—especially in the context of Afghanistan and counterterrorism.
As elections approach in both Washington and New Delhi, the subcontinent may witness a subtle but irreversible transformation in its power dynamics. If history is any guide, regime change doesn’t begin with tanks—it begins with silence, with snubs, and with backroom handshakes.
And that process may already be underway.
Writer is Geopolitical Analyst | Specialist in South Asian Strategic Affairs. She can be reached at [email protected]
