Tazeen Akhtar
As some Pakistanis discuss the relevance of Westminster Parliamentary System or generally speaking The Western Democracy is not a democracy in real because 49 votes are lost and 51 votes are winners that means only 2 votes decide the future and value of 98 votes.
That 2 votes can be from illiterate persons and among the lost 49 votes, there may be many votes of Doctors, Engineers, Professors etc. Moreover only a portion of the voters use their right to elect the representatives, the elected representatives can not claim having a national mandate. Same happened again in Pakistan that only less than half of the total votes have been cast in Election 2024.
Total number of voters is 128 Million 585 Thousand and 760. Province wise , Punjab 73 M 207 K 896 – Sindh 26 M 994 K 769 – KP 21 M 928 K 119 – Balochistan 5 M 371 K 947 – Islamabad 1 M 083 K 029. Out of 128.585 M, cast votes are 60 M approximately, which clearly indicates that there was no enthusiasm in the voters to express their interest in the election of the next regime in their country of population 250 Million.
It also mentions that it is not a complete democratic process. If we see it in terms of the total population of the country , it is 25 % only and less than half of the registered voters as well.
Interesting thing that happened for the first time in the history of elections in Pakistan , this time the winning party is blaming rigging and change in results. Otherwise the losing party would complain. Another interesting matter is PTI always hints at rigging either it loses or it wins. Soon after election May 2013, Imran Khan staged agitation jamming the country blaming 35 Punctures (Rigging in 35 NA constituencies).
More interesting is PTI claiming clean sweep although PTI is not in the running as a party. The independents who are from PTI are not all from PTI and most of them are just the beneficiaries (we do not want to use the word opportunists) of the situation created due to disqualification of Khan and ban on PTI for not holding intra party elections.
Here it is important to note that Khurram Nawaz MNA elected from NA -48 Islamabad has joined PMLN. He was elected on a PTI ticket in the last election. Mian Muhammad Khan Bugti from NA-253 from Ziarat-Sibi Balochistan has announced his support for PMLN. IndShamsher Ali MazariMazari MNA election in NA-189 Rajanpur South Punjab defeated the PMLN candidate and later joined PMLN. In the Provincial Assembly , Muhammad Sohail, independent PP-240, Khurram Virk PP-48 and Rana Muhammad Fayyaz PP-49 have also joined the PML-N.
For the National Assembly, no party is in position to form a government alone but every party is king maker as well, if it makes an alliance with another party, can form the government. It can be seen like “Divide and Rule” again comes the western west-minister style as in sub continent the minority Britain rule is attributed to their strategy “Divide and Rule”. Britain divided Hindu Muslim two largest nations and ruled here.
Apparently, PMLN is going to gather the simple majority if we see the trends, Independents joining PMLN (also see my previous article who are Independents other than PTI and where they get directions from or they get their price).
PPP is satisfied in Sindh for the third consecutive 5 years rule in the province. Certainly MQM of Karachi with 17 most important seats will go with PMLN because they have the least to secure from PPP in Sindh while PPP does not need any ally to establish gov there.
Here very important to note is , PMLN, PPP, MQM, JUI will get more seats of reserve and minorities but IND (PTI) can not avail this opportunity. They are not a registered party. This will bring them down in the number game.
Other mainstream parties are already mindful that PTI can not be convinced to form a coalition and the PTI chairman himself made it clear not to make a coalition with PMLN or PPP. This has brought PMLN and PPP closer with MQM, JUI, PMLQetc to move forward for a coalition in the center.
Here , first Nawaz Sharif and then Army Chief issued statements about national unity type things in the formation of the central government.
Nawaz Sharif in a statement aired after the election and termed as winning speech that PTI criticized , called his party ‘biggest’ in the elections 2024. He invited all the political parties to sit together and form a government to pull Pakistan out of the difficulties.
“We can’t hold elections again and again; every one should together play a positive role in bringing Pakistan out of this crisis, ” Nawaz said.
General Asim Munir’s words” Pakistan’s diverse polity and pluralism will be well-represented by a unified government of all democratic forces imbibed with national purpose. Elections and democracy are means to serve the people of Pakistan and not end in themselves. The nation needs stable hands and a healing touch to move on from the politics of anarchy and polarisation which does not suit a progressive country of 250 Million people.”
Very good is the national spirit and who can be more concerned and serious about the country than who are ruling or who are about to rule but Man Proposes and God Disposes. IND (PTI) are not boarding the plane to take off with others.
Barrister Gohar, chair of PTI after disqualification of real chair Imran, said in press conference on 10 Feb , ” PTI is going to protests and to courts if Election Commission of Pakistan is failed to declare the actual results (in form 45 preliminary results on polling stations, instead of form 47, the combined results issued by ECP).
Question arises , when you call for a national government with all parties on board, what do you actually mean? It means the government formed after the election according to results is not a national gov?
The big wigs should think about what message they are conveying to a nation that already has lost trust in all so called democratic processes especially the general elections. First of all , they need to omit the word General before the Election. I suggest the title “National Election”.
IND (PTI) as mentioned , they are not a political party, legally they can not claim reserve seats, first they have to form a group and name the head of the group. If they are confident of the majority, they need to name the PM candidate of their group.
More notable than that is , the meeting of Raja Nasir Abbas, the head of Majlis e WahdatulMuslimeen (MWM) , mainly a Shia org turned political party, in the jail with Imran Khan only a few days before the election. Astonishingly, MWM won a seat in the National Assembly that was not expected alone by MWM. Hameed Hussain of MWM was supported by PTI in NA-37, Parachinar, Kurram District, a highly sensitive region with respect to terrorist attacks as well as Shia Sunni differences.
Here comes the more interesting part of the Pakistani election. IND (PTI) can join MWM to become a registered political party that can pave the way for them to have reserve seats , enhancing the number in the assembly. But here two points are central to ponder upon. What constitution or laws say in this format, having no example in history? What difference will it make when still the number 172 is not reachable? Barrister Gauhar said in the press conference ” We are ready to sit in the opposition if we fail to fetch the required number.”
Finally , in the scenario of above mentioned developments, Bilawal’s press conference has made clarity on the next political picture. Shehbaz is Prime Minister, Asif Ali Zardari is President and Maryam is CM Punjab. PPP will have Chairman Senate and Speaker as well. This will ease PPP with no responsibility in the center but still having hold on important gates in the way to legislation.
Imran Khan is being convinced by who , it has no need to mention, everyone knows there is some understanding already developed that was seen in the shape of declaring Bani Gala as sub jail instead of sending Mrs. Imran to real jail. Everything is not on the screen, something is also cooked behind the scenes. Let’s see when it is cooked and what we are made to eat in the next 5 years.
Writer is senior Journalist .Analyst, broadcaster and Editor Monthly International Magazine “Pakistan in the World”. He worked as editor in Daily Khabrain, Daily Jinnah and Daily Azkar. He can be reached at [email protected]