Turan Rzayev
What will Beijing’s response be? Despite China’s strong objections, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan yesterday. Even now, Pelosi is leaving the island. Pelosi made a statement at the airport and said that they stand by Taiwan once again. Pelosi’s democracy message During her visit to Taiwan, Pelosi said, “Washington cannot stand by while the Chinese Communist Party threatens Taiwan and democracy itself.” “In the face of increasing aggression from the Chinese Communist Party, the visit of our congressional delegation should be interpreted as a clear statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner in defending itself and its freedom,” Pelosi said. In fact, Pelosi’s words give reason to propose certain ideas about her visit to Taiwan. Pelosi’s statement “the growing aggression of the Chinese Communist Party” and “we stand with Taiwan” are especially noteworthy. In general, the United States recognizes the principle of “One Genie”. But what kind of China are we talking about? Although the reason for Washington’s strained relations with China is often cited as Beijing’s growing economic indicators, this is not exactly the case. Looking at the official indicators, it is clear that China’s economy is currently overtaking the US economy. The main issue that worries official Washington is China’s current political regime and this regime’s support for anti-democratic authorities such as North Korea, Iran, and Russia. Washington is actually worried about China taking this line in foreign policy. Washington is making a show of muscle to Beijing to prevent this. He made this clear both by conducting military exercises around Taiwan and by sending Nancy Pelosi to the island. Can China intervene militarily in Taiwan? First of all, let me note that China is right in the current situation in terms of inviolability of territorial integrity. Therefore, China could not be silent about Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It is no coincidence that after Pelosi landed in Taipei, China began military exercises around Taiwan. In general, before the visit, the Chinese government sent warplanes to the island and issued stern warnings to the United States. Even the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Zhao Lijian, said that China will take drastic measures to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the Chinese military will not sit back and watch Pelosi’s visit: “We are ready for any contingency. If they dare, let them wait and see what we do.” There were also claims that it could launch missile strikes on Taiwan. Fortunately, this did not happen. In fact, China’s military intervention in Taiwan is not realistic. First of all, the Chinese economy is characterized by high growth dynamics, and although it surpasses the US economy, it is quite fragile. The main reason for its fragility and the dependence of raw materials from abroad. Beijing’s possible military intervention in Taiwan means that the United States will first impose economic sanctions on this country, which also means Western sanctions. But this does not mean that China will remain silent about the situation. Beijing will not forget Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan so easily. Sanctions have already started on Taiwan. It is possible that this sec increase the share package. As for the United States, official Beijing will continue the tension with Washington for some time, but in a different context.
Writer is Political Expert, Center for International Relations and Diplomatic Studies
