Islamabad: The pro-active energy management is the need of hour for Pakistan to meet the emerging challenges in the energy sector. The experts from energy sector said this while sharing their view with the participants of online webinar ‘Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2047 and the challenges’ organized by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), here on Tuesday, with support from the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), the Rural Development Policy Institute (RDPI), the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), and World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan).
Mr. Simon Nicholas, representing Institute for Energy Economics Analysis, shared with the participants that although the plan takes into account both energy and economic impacts, there is a risk in both and there are chances that the plan could be unsustainable in both energy and economics. Concerns were raised against GDP projections as well.
Moreover, he said, the major risk in IGCEP is the locking of too much power that will cause a huge economic loss. He said that Pakistan will be better off by reducing the cost of generation.
Mr. Tauseef ur Rehman from National Transmission and Distribution Company (NTDC), on the occasion, explained that planning and Forecasting of Energy demand is the main driving parameter and pre-requisite behind plans such as IGCEP 2047. He added further that it is an indicative plan that will be updated every year and will be based on different scenarios of GDP growth rates and electricity sales.
Miss Haneea Isaad, representing Rural Development Policy Institute (RDPI), explained that the said plan lacks an explanation in its least-cost analysis whereas hydropower might not have been optimized and transmission cost does not appear to be a part of the plan. She also raised concerns about the grave social, financial and environmental risks posed by an over-dependence of the IGCEP plan on fossil fuel fired generation. Likewise, a target of achieving 30% renewable energy by 2030 has been considered, but a decrease in the share of renewables is seen after 2030, she added.
Dr Muhammad Asif, Assistant Professor, Glasgow University, pointed out that energy efficiency and management is a major contributor and pre-requisite for an energy-efficient outlook. He added further that measures for demand-side management and policies are missing from Pakistan’s plan of action.
For a better outlook, he said, a pro-active energy management activity and diverse energy supplies should be prioritized.
The experts agreed that correctly forecasting GDP is nearly an impossible task, and always must adjust it accordingly. Nonetheless, it’s a positive step that initiatives like the IGCEP are being undertaken in Pakistan and can surely play an important role in determining future directions for energy policy in the country.
Dr Hina Aslam, Research Fellow Energy, Head of China Study Center, SDPI, earlier highlighted the diverse aspect of the plan and the outlook of the overall landscape of the energy in Pakistan.