Dr. Hasan Yaser Malik
Ever since the construction of Suez Canal in 1869 and Marshall Plan 1948 the economic corridors are emergingup and Chinese BRIsince 2013 is expanding as the largest one which is not only affecting the US but is also challenging for US supported Europe. Since the start of China-US economic war in 2018,Washington has been asserting to influence Beijingin Asia-Pacific Region with help of its allies in form of various military and economic alliances like AUKUS and QUAD; whereas with a view to counter Chinese diplo-economic influence in the Hydrocarbon rich Middle Eastern Region and to avoid the implications of Chinese 4500 km long Sixth Island Chain in Atlantic from Trinidad to Tobago; Washington concluded Abraham Accord between Israel, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on September 15, 2020which has ultimately led to idea of India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) ; a multimodule geo-eco and strategic initiative basing on supply chain and trade, announced during G-20 conference on 10 Sep 2023.
The plan details involving government commitments, custom and tax considerations among eight member countries are likely to finalised by the end of 2023. However, a few of its significant facets includes incentivising new investments by connecting Asia and Europefor primarily exporting of clean energy, strengthening supply chains and ensuringfood security through a Ship- Rail Transit Network with only a 300km long Jorden- Haifa railway line left under construction.The 20 bn USD initiative is expected to not only cause 40 per cent increase in trade between India and Europe but will also reduce traveling time by 40 and commodity price by 30 per cent.
While comparingthis US backed initiative with BRI it is worth mentioning that BRI involves 150 countries, 30 international organisations worth 1 trillion USD, whereas IMEC consists of only eight countries. Moreover, IMEC includes BRI members like UAE, KSA and Italy.BRI is being projected as debt trap as its incudes agreement between a global power and under developing countries whereas IMEC due to in built geo-eco facet promotes autonomy of all members.
The recent expansion of BRICS including the KSA, Egypt and Iran will emerge as challenge for the IMEC as KSA is part of BRICS as well and is the second largest oil exporting country while exporting 1.9 millionbarrels of oil per day to China, moreover since adoption of Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership worth 400 billion USD the IMEC objective of energy transportation will not be able to make any substantial influence in the region or even beyond.
Indian eco commitments and dependence in the Muslims ports and countries as part of IMEC can be leveraged for the interest of Indian Muslims and Kashmir in later time frame.Moreover, being US backed IMEC will have to tackle Chinese overtures as well.IMEC does not appear to eco-challenge for Beijing as China holds eco control over more than 100 ports around the world including Piraeus (67 per cent shares) which is IMEC’s primary European terminus.The envisagedexpansion of IMEC in South China Sea by making efforts to involve Taiwan in IMEC on Washington’s behest will definitely be countered by Beijing. The initiative is likely to make the Indian aspiration of International North South Transportation Corridor and Chabahar port development as superfluous.
Considering the Indian, KSA and Israel’s growing geo-eco involvement with China it seems that IMEC will indirectly be supporting BRI and ultimately the CPEC in a decade are so. It is noteworthy to understand that a regional Eurasian country Turkey has not been involved into it, perhaps due to Middle Corridor between China and Europe through Caspian Sea. The good thing is that no military Cooperation has been pronounced as part of IMEC initiative and it can soon be operationalised as only 300 km long under construction railway is left out of 1440 kmand rest 80 per cent which has already been completed. Considering the ever emerging global geo-economic dependenceand Chinese increasing global diplo-economic influence the corridor contest will ultimately be directly or indirectly be supporting BRI and CPEC.