Dr. Malik Hasan
The famous proverb that land divides and sea unties people has been validated by explorers like Ibn Battuta, and Marco Polo and Admirals like Khair Uddin Barbarossa and Zheng He. In 19th century US Naval Strategist Admiral Alfred Mahan emphasised on the need of Sea Power and US started extending its military power onto the sea by controlling the sea lanes through domination of bottle necks like straits of Malacca, Hormuz, Aden, Suez and Panama Canals manly during and after WW-II era thus influencing the global diplo-economic domains. However Chinese objectives to emerge as a modern economic power by 2030 and to be a top tier military power by 2050 has led a competition between China and U.S since Jan 2012 once the US was economically compelled do away with the Bush theory of Preemption and to adopt the New Defence Strategy for sustaining U.S Global leadership: Prioritising for 21st Century Defence with a view to offset the Chinese economic and military ingress that has capability to influence Indo U.S presence in the energy rich Indian Ocean Region (IOR).Chinese domination of South China Sea and its expanding influence in Indian Ocean is pressurising US to take a few geo-political moves to counter China with a view to maintain its global leadership. Apart from a trade tension between China and US since 2018 and U.S Freedom of Navigation Operations in South China Sea; U.S initiated a few moves. On diplomatic front firstly U.S adopted “Better Utilisation Investment Leading to Development” (BUILD) act in 2018 not only to pursue its national interests but also to provide an alternate to Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
In economic domain it institutionalised U.S International Development Finance Cooperation (USIDFC) in 2019 to reinvigorate U.S investments. Secondly in Nov 2019 Washington and Canberra established “Blue Dot Network” under the auspices of Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development to attract capital for infrastructure building. Lately in June 21 U.S and G-7 launched “Build Back Better World” (B3W) infrastructure partnership to reduce 40 trillion USD infrastructural gaps in developing countries by 2035. Australia, India and South Korea have been offered to be part of the initiative with a view to contest Chinese economic emergence.
In case of military moves Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) involving Australia, India, Japan and U.S was formed in 2017 to promote American Policy in Indo-Pacific Region with a view to check Chinses Naval expansion. Apart from this Maritime QUADU.S also initiated a land based Central and South Asia Quadrilateral Bloc (CASA – QUAD) in Chinese Xing Jang Region. Lately on 15 Sep 21 U.S announced AUKUS Alliance with Australia and UK for provision of nuclear powered submarines to Australia to be most likely used against China.
It is Pertinent to note that all such efforts have not been able to stop Chinese economic and military developments rather have infused a better competitive spirit among Chinese. First interaction between President Biden’s Administration and President Xi Jinping’s Administration at Anchorage on 18 Mar 2021 is a point in case.
The primary reason for Chinese expansion is its economic strength vs US and Its allies. Chinese forex reserves are 3.46 trillion and trade surplus is 535 billion USD as compared to U.S forex reserves worth 141 billion and trade deficit worth 678 billion USD. It will be interesting to know that all QUAD and AUKUS countries including U.S have more trade dependence on China than any other country even not on each other. Australia Who is being prepared to fight Chinese Navy exports goods worth 109, 13, and 3.8 billion USD to China U.S and UK respectively hence it appears that the fate of AUKUS Accord will not be different than above mentioned other initiatives. IAEA Head of UN Atomic Agency Rafael Grossi has said that AUKUS as per which Australia will obtain nuclear submarine technology is “very tricky”, It will be the first time that a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obtains nuclear submarines, apart from the five nuclear weapons states. More over this deal has infuriated France because Australia said it would cancel an existing order for French diesel-powered submarines.An Australian Author Richard McGregor has concluded the same in his book “Xi Jinping: The Backlash” by mentioning that“The question is no longer what might happen when China confronts the United States. Rather, the United States is bringing the confrontation itself, for fear of losing contest too late. The backlash elsewhere in the world however takes more explaining”.
Considering the emerging Chinese diplo-economic strength and depleting U.S diplo-economic influence it appears that such U.S geo-political moves are aiming to attract Chinese attention for some deal.
The writer Fellow Research Member with Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transportation (UK) and Fellow Research Member with Pakistan Navy War College