Dr. Malik Hasan
Water has always played a crucial role in growth of civilizations; as most of the cultures and empires have settled and developed along the water. Incorporating the facets of socio-diplomatic progress waters have helped explorers like Zheng He,Ibn-e- Battuta and Marco Polo to explore the world mainly through the sea routes. The probes have introduced the cheapest and bulk trade system, principally through waters from Mediterranean to South China Sea. The maritime trade ultimately led to diplo-economic competition among different empires and nations. The competition entailed the presence of a strong navy with a view to ensure the protection including the Sea Lines of Communications. The trade competition which started in 11th century initially included the clashes among Sirivijaya and Chola empires from Sumatra Island to Bay of Bengal. The Pursuit between the Ming Empire, Arabs, Portuguese, Japan and the US started in 15th century and continued mainly till the Cold War era. As part of Chinese Ming dynasty Admiral Zheng He (Muslim) commanded expeditionary voyages to Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, and East Africa from 1405 to 1433. His large ships carried hundreds of sailors on four decks and were almost twice as long as any wooden ship ever known. His fleet consisted of 317ships and 28,000crew.During the voyages Zheng Hepresented gifts like gold, silver, porcelain, and silk,and in return, he received novelties like ostriches, zebras, camels, ivory and giraffe from the Swahili. Such expeditions enhanced Chinese socio and diplo-economic influence in the region.
Race to colonial and later imperialist mastery by the western countries transformed the tranquility of the sea waters in to devastation. After the Cold War Era; U.S started dominating the Indo-Pacific Oceans by controlling most of the choke points like Strait of Malacca, Hurmoz, and Adan etc. This US domination of Indo-Pacific Region has been a concern for Chinese regional maritime trade. With a view to safeguard its diplo-economic interests in the oceans, China apart from building a Blue Water Navy has also adopted a ‘String of Pearls Strategy’. Recently in line with US policies
China is establishingseveralnaval bases to secure its sea lines of communication in Indo-Pacific Region;contract to develop and make use of Tulagi Island close to Second Island Chainis another effort in this direction. With a view to augment its trade, meeting its future hydrocarbon requirements and to avoid U.S pressure along Mediterranean Route, Beijing has recently adopted ‘Arctic Policy’ in Jan 2018. Basing on which a route from Rotterdam to Shanghai through the Northeast, Northwest and Arctic Passage will be adopted. The Polar Silk Route primarily passes through Exclusive Economic Zones of China itself and Russia. The adoption of Polar Silk Route will have a few implications.
Firstly, the Polar Silk Route will be comparatively free of any U.S influence hence allowing more freedom of trade to China, Russia and other countries. Secondly, it will shorten the trade distance between China and Europe to 8919km as compared to Suez Canal Route, hence saving thirteen days a trip for three to four months a year; aspect of fuel and time saving as compared to Suez Canal Route will add to the tune of two more months.
Increase inn umber of trips and ships combined with reduced distance is likely to compensate the trade which is being carried out through Mediterranean Sea in term of time. Thirdly, the trade linkages among Arctic and Pacific Oceans will allow Beijing to augmentitssway in Indo-Pacific Region as well. Fourthly, it will be easier for China to utilize huge Arctic reserves of oil and gas more pragmatically; which as per estimates of U.S. Geological Survey are 90 billion barrels of oil, 1.7 BCF of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of LNG. It will be pertinent to understand that these reserves in combination with reserves of South China Sea which are 12 billion barrels of oil and 190 TCF of gas will be much helpful in meeting the growing Chinese energy needs. Fifthly, it will ease out Beijing to utilize Russian ‘Yalam Gas Field’ reserves more pragmatically. Sixthly, This will enhance the Russia- Chinadiplo-economic ties hence will prove to be more prudent for Chinese global ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative; it is estimated that 18 per cent of global trade will shift to Arctic Region from Indo-Pacific Region. Adoption of Arctic Policy will not only enhance the Beijing’s global influence for peace and prosperity but will add to Chinese leverage in Indo-Pacific Region, hence paving way for peaceful and a prosperous global blue diplomacy.
Writer is Ph.D in International Relations and Fellow Research Member with Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transportation (UK)